Why You Won’t Become a Bestseller By Writing Into a Trend
on writing into book trends & what the fashion industry can teach us about the life cycle of a trend
A few writers have asked me about current trends in book publishing and what I think will pop off next. While it’s interesting to talk about trends in publishing, I find the conversation can sometimes take an unproductive turn when it is being approached as a study on how to get published.
We’ve all heard that getting published is hard. I understand why writers feel tempted to chase the latest trend in pursuit of success. If there were a formula for success, I’d be interested in studying it too. But while you’re eyeing the trends in the spotlight right now, I can assure you that it’s almost impossible to find success by writing into these same trends.
But to explain why I think that, let’s take a step back and talk about trends in general. Trends are influenced by many things: world news, pop culture, social movements, etc. The fashion industry is particularly adept at talking about trends. So let’s take a look at the wisdom of the fashion industry and its breakdown of the life cycle of trends.
Fashion marketers and fashion blogs have taken a crack at studying trends in order to forecast them— or at least try to. Fashion and apparel is a trillion-dollar industry. That is a lot of cash riding on trend analysis and consumer psychology. When is a trend “trending”? At what point is it lucrative? When is it too early to jump on one? When is it too late? The fashion industry has had no choice but to study the life cycle of trends, partly because the industry used to count on a somewhat predictable 20-year trend cycle. But now with capitalism, social media, and globalization, trends can rise, fall, and rise again rapidly. The lifecycle of a trend has become quicker and less predictable, and consequently, the timing of jumping on (or off) a trend is crucial for brands. It can make or break them.
To be clear, this blog post isn’t about how a trend develops. I don’t think anyone can give you a clear explanation for that. Instead, my focus in this post is on why the unpredictability of trends makes them a moot point for you to fixate on as you’re developing your manuscript.
the life cycle of trend, according to fashion
1: Introduction
When a trend is first introduced to a market, it’s usually to a niche or very specific target audience. It’s not meant to be for everyone, and in fact, not all trends take off because of that reason.
2: Take off
This is the stage where a trend takes off beyond its niche or target market. As it rises in popularity, it gets a push from publicity and marketing departments and content creators.
3: Peak
In this stage, the trend becomes widely available. It shifts into the “mainstream.” The caveat is that it’s hard to determine when a trend is at its peak until it’s no longer peaking.
4: Fallout
This is when a trend reaches market oversaturation. In the fashion industry, that’s when the clothing items go on sale. The trend is less desirable, but loyal fans will still reach for it. It’s “last season’s” item, but still wearable.
5: Out of style
The trend is now “out of fashion.” There’s something new and popular that has people’s attention instead. That doesn’t mean the trend won’t come back. It just means it’s dead for now. Consumers are officially not seeking it out.
The matter of timing in publishing
Unlike fashion with its quarterly seasons or its problematic fast fashion sister, the publishing industry is slow. Very slow.
A traditionally published book usually takes nine months to two years from editorial acquisition to publication. That timeline does not include how long it took you to work on your manuscript from draft to completion, the time it takes you to sign with an agent, or the time it takes for your work with your agent before the sale of the manuscript.
But for this post, let’s assume an unconventionally speedy cycle. Let’s assume we’re looking at a fast writer. They finished their manuscript, signed with an agent, and their agent sold the manuscript all within 1 year. On top of that, their publisher got the book to bookshelves within 9 months. Things are moving fast for them!
In this scenario, we’re working with a fast publication cycle of 1 year and 9 months from the completed manuscript to bookshelves.
So let’s say that book is hitting the shelves this month and it’s publishing into a trend. Truly, it’s the dream!
But if we revisit the timeline, that means that books like this one, books that have been published into a trend this month, were written a minimum of one year and nine months ago.
So what you’re perceiving trend now didn’t start now.
Even with an unconventionally fast publishing cycle, writing into a trend can’t guarantee that the trend will be around by the time your book is on the market. A trend might be in its fifth stage, out of style, by the time your book is on the shelves. Or your book might not even sell to editors because the trend has already reached the fallout stage by the time your book is being pitched to editors. Few writers are lucky enough to publish at the peak of a trend. With traditional publishing timelines, it’s almost impossible to plan that.
The reality is that book trends, much like fashion or pop culture phenomena, have a tendency to come and go. What captures the readers' imagination today may fade into obscurity tomorrow. And what is obscure today may come back around tomorrow.
Let’s look at some examples of book trends in recent memory:
Dystopian YA
Remember when The Hunger Games and Divergent were the biggest books? Now, the market for Dystopian YA is oversaturated and these types of books are no longer trending.
Regency-era historical romance
Regency-era romance had its resurgence with Bridgerton by Julia Quinn, and I would argue that this trend is now in its fallout stage in favor of romantasy and sports romance.
Time Travel Romance
The Time Traveler’s Wife had its peak. And then we stopped seeing popular time travel romances. Now we have One Last Stop by Casey McQuiston, This is How You Lose the Time War by Amal El-Mohtar and Max Gladstone, and The Seven Year Slip by Ashley Poston and readers are loving fresh spins on the time travel trope again.
Post-apocalyptic and climate fiction
A few years ago, apocalyptic climate fiction was doing really well. Think Emily St. John Mandel’s Station Eleven. And then we went through a debilitating pandemic. Now the majority of readers aren’t too invested in climate or apocalyptic fiction. We’re at a stage where most readers are desiring escapist fiction. It’s too soon and it’s too real.
Write for you
That’s all to say that if you’re concerned with writing into a trend, you’re not actually setting yourself up for success. If anything, you’re doing your creative self a disservice. Instead of worrying about what is currently trending and how you can write into a trend, I think it’s best to toss that all aside and write what you want to read.
My best writing advice for authors is to write for yourself first. I like to think about writing and editing in stages:
Your first draft is for you.
Your second draft is for the story.
Your third draft can be edited for the market.
In that third draft, you can start thinking about your market and audience. What do readers resonate with? What elements of your book can be enhanced or reduced to suit your audience?
Still, you should never set out to write for an area of the market you think is selling well right now. The conversation about trends and the market should only come into play when you’re ready to think of your book as a saleable product.
Studying trends is useful as a sales tool. It’s a conversation that comes into play when agents and publishers are trying to sell a book into the market. And even then, it’s not a guarantee of success or lack thereof. It’s simply something your salespeople can capitalize on. It’s definitely not something you can think about during the writing stage. Your writing desk is a space for creativity. It’s not a salesroom.
